Category: Investing

When will natural gas prices turn?

Record warm temperatures made for a comfortable Canadian winter this year. But they’ve caused a chill in the energy market. Particularly natural gas prices which dropped to a 15 year low.

What’s the cure?

“Low gas prices” is the standard response from industry experts. Low prices spur demand and cut off supply. It’s just a lesson in economics.

Natural Gas Demand

Demand for natural gas is increasing on several fronts – electricity generation, manufacturing and transportation.

Electricity generation

U.S. electricity generation consumes 21 BCF/day (billion cubic feet per day) which is 6 BCF/day or 40% more than last year and is trending higher (Fig. 1). This increase of 6 BCF/day represents a full 9% of total US supply of 63.9 BCF/day for 2012.

North America had the warmest winter in 80 years and demand for heating was down 8 BCF/ day through March 2012 compared to a typical year. The net decline in demand over the first 90 days this year of 2 BCF/day (6 less 8 ) will reverse for the balance of 2012 due to the overall higher electricity generation demand. The U.S. National Weather Service has predicted temperatures above normal for July and August throughout most of the country which creates higher demand for natural gas as more electricity is used for air-conditioning.

Manufacturing

Industrial demand for natural gas is on the rise as companies take advantage of lower prices. Plastics and chemical factories are large consumers of natural gas. New facilities are scheduled to open in the next several years as the less expensive U.S. natural gas prices have drawn these industries from Europe and Asia where prices are much higher. For example, a new $6 billion chemical factory was recently announced in Pennsylvania to take advantage of the abundant shale gas from the region. [read more >>]

The 3 most common portfolio woes — and how to fix them

Earlier this year, our Managing Director and Chief Wealth Management Officer, David Lloyd published a month-by-month Personal Finance Checklist to help readers organize and optimize their financial affairs and it’s been a popular post on this blog.

April is a good month to review your portfolio after first quarter results are in: Perhaps a little ‘spring tune-up’ if you haven’t revisited your strategy in awhile?

On that very subject, here’s a link to an article by Stephen Hafner, one of our Managing Directors & Portfolio Managers, written for the website Accretive Advisor. Stephen identifies the three
most common portfolio problems we see — and how to fix them.

How (not) to choose a financial advisor

Last week a friend of mine asked me for help with his portfolio. His portfolio hadn’t made any money in eight years and he hasn’t made RRSP contributions for the past two years because he’s been so unhappy with the performance. He’s already switched advisors once (in 2008). Right now he’s feeling stuck and wondering what to do next.

A look at the portfolio reveals that the fees are high (MERs of about 2.75%) and he has an over-weighting in small cap mutual funds – both of which have dragged down his performance. But perhaps what’s more revealing is how he came to choose his current advisor.

He told me: “We knew each other when we were 18 year old boys. He left for university in his 20s like I did, and ended up as a RR, eventually settling with his current firm. He had a local radio show in our home town – I even went on it from time to time thinking even if I don’t get any returns, at least it will be good for my business – but this really has not panned out.”

Now, he’s a close enough friend I can tell him that’s a pretty poor reason for choosing an advisor. But he’s not alone. So very often people choose advisors on the basis of personal relationships, a referral from a friend or ‘gut instinct’ from an initial meeting. Of course we all want to deal with people we know, like and trust. That’s important. But it’s not enough. You’ve got to be clinical in your approach if you want to find a competent and professional advisor who is a good match for you . A couple of years ago I wrote a piece for our website on 10 Criteria for Choosing an Investment Advisor. My friend’s story reminded me to share it again.

Looking for investment success? Don’t look back!

i-3588459a60b0e702fe0c83abf3dce41a-rear_view_Feb2012.jpgIn pursuit of investment success, it is human nature to look backward for guidance. Unfortunately, it’s also a misguided strategy that can be very costly:

A recent article by Andrew Hallam in Canadian Business magazine suggests we are “hard wired to rely on established patterns” when it comes to investing (read Your Own Worst Investing Enemy). Hallam cited the example that “the average U.S. mutual fund from 1980 to 2005 gained 10% per year. But the average investor in those funds made only 7.3% — giving up more than one third of their potential earnings each year.” That’s because investors were doing the wrong thing at the wrong time (i.e. selling funds that weren’t performing and buying those that had been doing well and prices were higher).

Now more than ever investors need to be thinking about portfolio changes that will position them for the future not the immediate past.

[read more >>]

Tourmaline Oil hit 2012 production target

TOU-Overview-2012_Kdean.jpgFor those who are regular readers of our blog, the name Tourmaline Oil Corp. should be well known. We participated in Tourmaline’s initial capital raise in 2008 and continued to invest through IPO in November 2010 (see our earlier blog posts). Tourmaline is our single largest holding in the Newport Canadian Equity Fund today.

Tourmaline released their corporate overview presentation last week and it shows a continued path of impressive growth in production levels. Already this year, in the last week of January, Tourmaline achieved its 2012 average daily production target — well ahead of schedule.

[read more >>]

Is the U.S. job market really improving? Don’t believe everything you read.

Earlier this week the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (the “Bureau”) announced that the US unemployment rate had dropped to 8.6% and that 278,000 jobs had been created. On the surface, this seems like great news; however, I have a healthy degree of skepticism over an improving U.S. job market.

Let me explain.  US employment peaked in March 2007 and bottomed in October 2009 losing 7.94 million jobs in the process. Unemployment rose by 8.9 million people over the same period, so it’s reasonable to assume that nearly 1 million people entered the labor force over that time and were unable to find jobs.

i-da7c8136fd83d52d41bafdbbd86a1abc-US Economic Data.png

Since the bottom in October, 2009, unemployment has fallen by 2.3 million but this drop includes 595,000 people who are no longer looking for work but would surely take a job in a New York minute if one was offered.  If one nets out this “marginally attached” group the number of unemployed has now only fallen by 1.7 million people. So there are still 7.2 million people who either lost their jobs or couldn’t find one during the credit crisis and recession.

The Bureau reported that the labour force has actually fallen by 138,000 people over the same period.  How can the labour force not grow when the population is growing? According to World Bank estimates and the U.S. Census Bureau, US population has grown by 3.6 million people; 2.0 million of which are between the ages of 20 and 65…working age. In other words, on average, the U.S. has added an additional 90,000 working age people per month since October 2009. Where did these people go if the labour force didn’t grow?

Even if one accepts the Bureau’s 2.2 million jobs having been created since October, 2009, that barely absorbs the growth in the population of working aged citizens let alone makes any dent on those who actually lost their jobs.

It gets worse. If one adds the number of people who are working part time because they can’t get full time work to the number of unemployed the total is a staggering 15.6% of the U.S. labour force! One out of every 6.5 working people in the U.S. are earning significantly less than they were before the recession.

Why does this matter? The consumer represents 70% of GDP in the US.  Without a meaningful improvement in jobs, the US economy will continue to languish.  When making decisions about where to invest we need to understand whether the economy is improving and whether corporate profits are likely to grow from improving demand. Our analysis goes much deeper than the reported headlines. We consult economists, analysts, our independent investment managers, our clients who own businesses, and we conduct our own research. Digging deeper enables us to gain more insight into whether an apparently improving statistic actually translates into a growing economy. In the case of reported labour statistics, we don’t believe it does.

What type of real estate investor are you?

i-b9802e2eb3639c5960b95e8866ba9a22-Dec14_blog_building.jpgI opened the Globe and Mail today to read with interest the article, How the rich are investing in real estate right now, written by Thane Stenner.

Mr. Stenner had an interesting take on what he defined as four different types of real estate investors. As readers of this blog know, real estate has long been an important plank in our investment platform and I thought the subject merited further discussion of the different types of real estate investment opportunities available to high net worth investors:

Development Real Estate – A longer term investment, this category delivers some of the highest returns available in the real estate asset category. However, it is also the riskiest in that capital can be tied up for years as the property is developed and leased out to tenants.

Opportunities in this category include loans, which offer higher than market yields due to the risk associated with vacant land, and capital investments, where the investor takes ownership of a portion of the property along with the developer. An economic downturn, however, can result in these properties remaining undeveloped, and potentially tying up your investment for longer than anticipated.

Income Producing Real Estate – Both commercial property and multi-residential housing units offer an excellent way to reduce risk and earn a steady cash flow. However, for passive investors, it is important to have experienced and well-qualified property managers who understand the day to day complexities of this type of real estate. After all, who wants a call at 2:00am because of a leaky pipe?

Well-diversified portfolios will include investments in many different properties in many different geographic locations thus reducing the risk associated with any one real estate market. Income- producing residential real estate usually performs very well during economic downturns as those who are unable to afford a home turn to rentals.

Turn-Around Real Estate – An offshoot of income-producing real estate, these diamonds in the rough offer the potential for both capital gains and income. Purchasing a property that is undervalued due to a lack of capital investment and investing more to bring the units up to current standards can result in higher rental income and a capital gain when the property is eventually sold. Unlike “flipping” a house, however, investing in turn-around apartment units requires more capital and a longer term commitment. In the article,

Mr. Stenner points to the United States as another example of this category. Areas where property may be undervalued, such as Arizona for example, can present an opportunity to investors. However, investors should understand that employment, economic growth and competing developments will all have an effect on whether these investments ultimately grow in value. In addition, Canadian residents should be aware of the added costs from non-resident taxes, legal and accounting fees from having to file US tax returns if you earn income, and the potential impact of estate tax.

Mortgages – There is a large secondary market for loans completely unrelated to the big 5 banks. Developers and investors often turn to this market because they need to close faster than a bank is willing to or because the bank is unwilling to lend (for any number of reasons unrelated to the opportunity available). Often, the secondary market proves to be more flexible than the banks are willing to be. These loans are often shorter term and have higher yields and carry the property as collateral in the event that the borrower is unable to make payments.

For our part, we invest in all four of these categories, with the majority being invested in income real estate. We do so to diversify and enhance our returns.

While Mr. Stenner points to a number of publicly traded securities or Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) as a method for investing in real estate, in my view, this reduces one of the key advantages to real estate: risk reduction.

While these securities often do not have high correlations with the overall market, they typically still fall in value when public markets undergo periods of volatility. In 2008, the S&P/ TSX Composite Index fell 49.3% from its high. The TSX Capped REIT Index fell 62.66% from its high and that fall began much earlier than the broader market.

While it is true that REITs distribute significant cash flow, making this category attractive, they are still subject to market volatility. Private real estate investments may offer some advantages in that their value does not bounce around with the stock market everyday and potentially offer more re-development or capital gain potential than public investments. The challenge however is they are typically more difficult to access for individual investors.

Real estate should be an investment held in every investor’s portfolio. However, it is a complicated asset category and unless you have the expertise, you may want to find professional managers who understand and specialize in this area.